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The ambitious Great Green Wall project, initiated by the African Union in 2007, envisioned a colossal green barrier stretching across Africa to halt desertification in the Sahel region. However, after nearly two decades and billions in pledged funds, the initiative has predominantly faced setbacks, with many restored areas returning to their arid state. This report delves into the intricate challenges that have plagued this monumental environmental endeavor, examining instances of failure alongside isolated pockets of success.

In the parched Kourtimale valley in Djibouti, the remnants of Abdi Guelleh's once-promising farm serve as a stark illustration of the Great Green Wall's struggles. What was meant to be a verdant agricultural haven, supported by an international initiative to fight desertification, now stands barren. In 2014, with significant funding, a water system was established, allowing Guelleh and his community to cultivate diverse crops, providing food security and a modest income. Yet, this prosperity was fleeting. Over time, persistent drought, faulty infrastructure, and increased water demand led to the system's collapse. Today, only a weekly water truck delivery sustains livestock, a grim reminder of a failed dream.

The initial concept of the Great Green Wall involved planting a continuous band of trees 4,350 miles long and 10 miles wide. This was projected to restore 250 million acres of land, sequester 250 million tons of carbon, create 10 million green jobs, and alleviate poverty and conflict. However, early tree-planting efforts were largely unsuccessful, with a vast majority of saplings perishing due to unsuitable species and insufficient water. Agronomist Dennis Garrity points out that such large-scale tree-planting in arid regions has a historical record of failure. By 2020, only 4% of the targeted land had been restored, prompting a shift in strategy towards broader land restoration and sustainable land management practices.

Senegal, initially a leading advocate and a supposed success story for the project, has also revealed significant shortcomings. Despite claims of restoring 850,000 hectares, observations by geographer Valerio Bini and environmental researcher Annah Zhu suggest that many reforested areas are indistinguishable from their natural arid surroundings. A 2025 study in Land Use Policy journal found minimal ecological benefits and only temporary social impacts from the Senegalese reforestation projects. This raises critical questions about the efficacy of current approaches and the allocation of the billions in international funding.

The financial aspect of the Great Green Wall is equally complex. The United Nations estimated a need for $33 billion, with further pledges of $19 billion in 2021 from international donors like the Green Climate Fund and the EU. However, tracking these funds and their impact has been a major challenge. National agencies responsible for implementation report receiving only a fraction of the allocated money. The Pan-African Great Green Wall Agency acknowledges issues with funding, coordination, national capacities, diverse environmental contexts, and political instability as significant hurdles. The Sahel’s volatile political landscape, often termed the “Coup Belt,” further diverts attention and resources from environmental priorities.

Despite these widespread challenges, there are isolated instances where the Great Green Wall initiative has brought tangible benefits. In Chad’s Kanem province, the NGO SOS Sahel supported villagers in Barkadroussou to revitalize their oasis. Through dune stabilization, provision of seeds, training, and a solar water pump, 300 independent farmers now thrive, cultivating diverse crops and stemming rural migration. This success story, however, highlights the precariousness of such projects, as its funding also ran out in 2023, leaving its future uncertain.

The journey of the Great Green Wall initiative has been fraught with difficulties, from the initial ambitious, yet flawed, tree-planting strategy to the complex web of funding and governance issues. While some local projects have demonstrated potential, the overarching vision remains largely unrealized. The ongoing efforts underscore the immense complexity of large-scale ecological restoration in vulnerable regions, necessitating improved coordination, community involvement, and sustained, adaptable financial support to avoid further disappointments for communities like Abdi Guelleh’s.